Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x26a8…8a98
sports · 456 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$29 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$37 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses243 / 207
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions6
Markets (closed)450 / 456
History coverage25d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 6 History 450 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$110
14 days+$41
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Bilibili Gaming 76¢ 100¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+32%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 58¢ 100¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+72%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Spirit 63¢ 64¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 30¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $22 +$5 +21%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $14 +$3 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $7 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$2 +29%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $22 +$15 +68%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $22 +$7 +30%
Spread: Hurricanes (-3.5) Jun 12 $7 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7 +$4 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $22 +$9 +41%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $7 +$7 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 11 $7 +$1 +21%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 −$5 -30%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $33 −$1 -4%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $7 +$11 +158%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $15 +$3 +21%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $21 +$8 +38%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $14 +$7 +50%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 09 $15 +$10 +66%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $7 +$1 +17%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $7 +$3 +48%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $22 +$28 +126%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $7 +$8 +119%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 174.5 Jun 07 $0 $0 +67%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $14 −$4 -32%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $7 +$4 +57%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $7 +$7 +105%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $7 +$4 +57%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $22 +$8 +38%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $7 +$5 +73%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 06 $7 +$5 +67%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 162.5 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 157.5 Jun 06 $7 +$8 +116%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 Jun 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 160.5 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 90% +$37
crypto 5% −$34
other 5% +$33
politics 1% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 59¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 59¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 59¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 60¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 59¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 59¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 59¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 59¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 59¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 59¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 60¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 58¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 60¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 60¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 58¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 57¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 58¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -9.9% -18.5% 54% 54% -24.6%
≤30d 450 +2.5% -7.3% 54% 51% -8.9%
≤90d 450 +2.5% -7.3% 54% 51% -8.9%
all 450 +2.5% -7.3% 54% 51% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 51% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 45% -17.6%
15% -24.2% 37% -25.6%
20% -31.7% 31% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.05 · official $47.64 (match) · 1642 history records