Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26a7…be9b sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$545 (-44%) realized −$541 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$557
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-70.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -67.7% -70.8% 12% 12% -70.8%
≤30d 8 -67.7% -70.8% 12% 12% -70.8%
≤90d 8 -67.7% -70.8% 12% 12% -70.8%
all 8 -67.7% -70.8% 12% 12% -70.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.8% 12% -70.8%
10% -73.6% 12% -73.6%
15% -76.1% 12% -76.2%
20% -78.5% 12% -78.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$102 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized−$541
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 28¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Morocco 21¢ 22¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Morocco 39¢ 40¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 22¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 +$161 +158%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco 21¢ $102 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 39¢ $102 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $102 13h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 13h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $102 13h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $102 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 34¢ $102 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $102 41h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $102 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $102 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.72 · official $395.76 (match) · 20 history records