Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:36:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26a7…4fba sports 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$517 (-12%) realized −$491 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%22W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$573
7 days+$445
14 days+$363
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$656
other 4% +$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -7.8% -16.6% 35% 35% +21.2%
≤30d 52 -15.5% -23.5% 29% 29% -14.3%
≤90d 72 -18.0% -25.8% 31% 29% -19.5%
all 72 -18.0% -25.8% 31% 29% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 29% -19.5%
10% -32.9% 29% -27.2%
15% -39.4% 29% -34.3%
20% -45.3% 29% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$41 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$491
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 50
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage35d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox 54¢ 44¢ $136 $109 −$26 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Jun 29 $195 −$54 -28%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $106 +$89 +84%
Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko Jun 29 $55 +$50 +91%
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 29 $80 −$25 -31%
Wimbledon WTA: Francesca Jones vs Diane Parry Jun 29 $56 −$55 -97%
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 29 $409 +$235 +58%
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito Jun 29 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $74 +$241 +324%
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 29 $77 +$146 +190%
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Jun 29 $43 +$34 +79%
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Jun 29 $46 −$45 -99%
Wimbledon ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 29 $29 −$28 -97%
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Jun 24 $30 −$29 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Esther Adeshina vs Harmony Tan Jun 24 $13 −$13 -97%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $39 −$38 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $49 −$48 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $28 −$28 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $121 −$118 -98%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Ilkley: Alina Korneeva vs Celine Naef Jun 09 $63 −$62 -98%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $23 +$40 +177%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $17 −$14 -81%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 09 $49 +$90 +185%
Bratislava: Tiago Pereira vs Andrej Martin Jun 09 $82 −$81 -98%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $16 −$15 -98%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 08 $61 −$60 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $49 −$3 -5%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $16 −$1 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $148 −$146 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $51 +$65 +128%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $16 −$16 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $8 +$8 +89%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $77 −$76 -98%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 02 $83 −$5 -6%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 02 $27 −$27 -98%
Foggia: Laura Mair vs Yiming Dang Jun 02 $29 −$1 -4%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 02 $103 −$11 -11%
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano Jun 02 $41 +$70 +170%
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 02 $9 +$12 +132%
Prostejov: Viktor Durasovic vs Norbert Gombos Jun 02 $23 +$27 +114%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $8 −$7 -98%
Heilbronn: Marvin Moeller vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 02 $86 −$85 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $146 −$6 -4%
Perugia: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Lorenzo Carboni Jun 02 $126 −$124 -98%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Martin Krumich Jun 02 $90 +$134 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Chicago White Sox 54¢ $122 24m
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Chicago White Sox 54¢ $16 24m
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto SELL Mwendwa Mbithi 49¢ $141 26m
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto BUY Mwendwa Mbithi 63¢ $39 1h
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto BUY Mwendwa Mbithi 66¢ $156 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $195 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $86 1h
Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko BUY Juan Pablo Varillas 52¢ $55 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Jesper de Jong 16¢ $55 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 22¢ $80 4h
Wimbledon WTA: Francesca Jones vs Diane Parry BUY Francesca Jones $23 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Nicolas Mejia 100¢ $645 4h
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito BUY Aoi Ito 27¢ $12 4h
Wimbledon WTA: Francesca Jones vs Diane Parry BUY Francesca Jones 13¢ $34 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 69¢ $262 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $315 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 54¢ $147 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $74 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $222 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 37¢ $39 6h
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 31¢ $38 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic SELL Dino Prizmic 100¢ $77 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic BUY Dino Prizmic 55¢ $43 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 28¢ $4 8h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Cameron Norrie 57¢ $46 8h
Wimbledon ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Hamad Medjedovic $29 8h
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 66¢ $30 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Esther Adeshina vs Harmony Tan BUY Esther Adeshina $13 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ann Li 43¢ $39 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.23 · official $109.23 (match) · 140 history records