Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26a6…2296 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
other 32% +$1
politics 12% +$1
crypto 5% +$3
economics 1% $0
sports 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 8% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.4% -9.8% 26% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 19 -0.4% -9.8% 26% 5% -9.6%
all 54 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 9% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 9% -10.1%
10% -18.5% 4% -18.7%
15% -26.4% 2% -26.6%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage484d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $40 −$1 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +11%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $19 −$4 -23%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $67 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $78 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $40 +$3 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $88 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 24 $19 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 20 $1 $0 +19%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 19 $1 $0 +12%
Israel announces end of military operations against Iran by Friday? Jun 19 $2 $0 -11%
Will Al Gore be named in Epstein files? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $20 $0 -2%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +76%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 12 $7 $0 -6%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 12 $26 $0 -1%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will R win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $29 +$2 +5%
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 10 $2 $0 -26%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $31 $0 +1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? Jun 09 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Sweden qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo register for presidential run? May 10 $31 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? May 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 09 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $43 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $43 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $17 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $22 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $11 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $39 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $28 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $12 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $45 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 203 history records