Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:09:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x269e…83de sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,259 (+35%) realized +$4,259 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$501per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$321
7 days−$321
14 days+$1,626
30 days+$1,871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$3,026
other 44% +$1,012
world 3% −$170
tech 3% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -64.3% -67.7% 0% 0% -67.7%
≤30d 7 +20.7% +9.2% 43% 43% +23.4%
≤90d 9 +10.9% +0.3% 44% 44% +24.7%
all 24 -14.6% -22.8% 33% 29% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 29% +19.7%
10% -30.2% 29% +8.2%
15% -36.9% 29% -2.2%
20% -43.1% 29% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$734 vs −$125 · ×5.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage264d
Avg bet$501
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $499 −$321 -64%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $199 −$195 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $99 +$247 +249%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,994 +$1,895 +95%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $966 +$662 +68%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $391 −$384 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $998 −$32 -3%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $3,963 +$2,111 +53%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $398 −$389 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Feb 23 $400 +$353 +88%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 22 $500 +$371 +74%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Nov 06 $100 −$5 -5%
Bulls vs. Knicks Nov 02 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference Nov 02 $20 −$9 -46%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4? Nov 02 $80 −$10 -12%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3? Nov 02 $100 −$55 -55%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1? Nov 02 $120 −$5 -4%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2? Oct 31 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $208 +$226 +108%
LoL: Verdant vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) Oct 11 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Vitality.Bee vs Los Ratones (BO5) Oct 10 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 10 $120 −$120 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? Oct 10 $400 +$9 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 16¢ $178 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $499 4h
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 35¢ $199 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $347 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $99 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $3,889 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $1,994 11d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,627 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $391 27d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $966 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima SELL Brandon Nakashima 69¢ $966 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Brandon Nakashima 70¢ $998 28d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,073 34d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,000 34d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $975 34d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $988 34d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,000 34d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $398 50d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner SELL G2 Esports 92¢ $753 122d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 49¢ $400 122d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs SELL Karmine Corp 80¢ $871 123d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 46¢ $500 123d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 38¢ $100 230d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 53¢ $95 231d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 56¢ $100 231d
Bulls vs. Knicks BUY Bulls 31¢ $150 235d
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference SELL No 13¢ $11 235d
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4? SELL No 58¢ $70 235d
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3? SELL No 28¢ $45 235d
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1? SELL No 66¢ $115 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records