Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:45:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x269d…1b8f
other · 36 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
+$14 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage471d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 0 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $52 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $11 +$3 +31%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $26 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 10 $4 $0 -9%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? Apr 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 06 $16 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $11 $0 -1%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 26 $2 +$1 +71%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on March 22? Mar 21 $33 $0 -0%
SE Missouri State vs. SIU-Edwardsville Mar 21 $16 +$16 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% +$6
other 34% −$8
sports 8% +$16
crypto 6% $0
weather 5% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $46 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $4 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $13 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $35 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $43 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $42 19h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $21 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $7 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $21 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $45 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $52 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $52 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $21 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $22 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.2% -3.9% 56% 22% -8.0%
≤30d 11 +5.1% -4.9% 55% 18% -8.2%
≤90d 11 +5.1% -4.9% 55% 18% -8.2%
all 36 +0.9% -8.7% 53% 11% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 11% -7.7%
10% -17.5% 11% -16.5%
15% -25.4% 6% -24.6%
20% -32.7% 6% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records