Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x269d…03fa other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$42 (+13%) realized +$59 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$52
sports 20% +$2
crypto 15% −$2
politics 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 +89.3% +71.3% 43% 43% +52.0%
all 11 +53.2% +38.6% 36% 36% +19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.6% 36% +19.6%
10% +25.3% 36% +8.1%
15% +13.2% 27% -2.3%
20% +2.1% 27% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$9 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage153d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 74¢ 90¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 26¢ 3¢ $25 $3 −$22 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem May 18 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-24? Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $10 +$90 +900%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $10 −$6 -64%
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 11 $20 +$22 +111%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jan 30 $50 −$1 -2%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 28 $20 −$10 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 1h
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem BUY Yes 61¢ $10 66d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 69d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY Yes 51¢ $10 73d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 25¢ $25 74d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 75d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 106d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 106d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $49 146d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 26¢ $10 148d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 148d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 74¢ $20 153d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 153d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 153d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 153d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 153d
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 153d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 153d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $50 153d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $50 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.64 · official $127.65 (match) · 73 history records