Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:33:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
26 0x269c…d005 other 19 markets active 15h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$135 (+7%) realized +$47 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$1,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$81
sports 13% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 50% +3.8%
≤30d 6 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 50% +3.8%
≤90d 6 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 50% +3.8%
all 6 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 50% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 50% +3.8%
10% -15.1% 33% -6.1%
15% -23.3% 33% -15.2%
20% -30.8% 33% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$42 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,638
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)6 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $500 $612 +$112 (+22%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 81¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $42 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-4%)
Will Jordan be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 20¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 45¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$18 +17%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$110 +216%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $256 23h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $513 43h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $75 43h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 46¢ $23 43h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $35 43h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $43 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 43h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 43h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Will Portugal win on 20 BUY 59¢ $51 43h
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $101 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 43h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $51 43h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 45h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 45h
Will Jordan be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 42¢ $51 45h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 45h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $51 45h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $51 46h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,638.01 · official $1,638.02 (match) · 26 history records