Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:57:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x269c…9017
sports · 362 markets active 25d ago
0.0score
−$100,967 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$52,816 · open −$48,151
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$55,872
Realized−$52,816
Unrealized−$48,151
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses261 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$5,587
Open positions5
Markets (closed)423 / 362
History coverage184d
Avg bet$8,991
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 5 History 423 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65,290
7 days−$65,290
14 days−$65,290
30 days−$62,148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US recession by end of 2026? No 67¢ 81¢ $15,899 $19,358 +$3,458 (+22%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 96¢ 23¢ $57,740 $13,830 −$43,910 (-76%)
Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $7,597 $9,997 +$2,399 (+32%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 68¢ 60¢ $6,800 $6,050 −$750 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 30¢ $2,900 $3,000 +$100 (+3%)
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 94¢ 100¢ $1,873 $1,988 +$115 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 16¢ $8,700 $1,650 −$7,050 (-81%)
Nuggets vs. Spurs Spurs 66¢ 0¢ $3,444 $0 −$3,444 (-100%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 in November? No 80¢ 0¢ $5,761 $0 −$5,761 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October 31? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $360 $0 −$360 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 28? No 43¢ 0¢ $1,290 $0 −$1,290 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3? Down 50¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 22¢ 0¢ $830 $0 −$830 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 17? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $5,792 $0 −$5,792 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Nuggets Nuggets 49¢ 0¢ $980 $0 −$980 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 Over 71¢ 0¢ $1,775 $0 −$1,775 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on September 26? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $858 $0 −$858 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 222.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on July 21? No 27¢ 0¢ $270 $0 −$270 (-100%)
Bitcoin above $112K on August 25 at 4PM ET? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1,080 $0 −$1,080 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $2,150 $0 −$2,150 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 15? No 61¢ 0¢ $3,516 $0 −$3,516 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Rockets 98¢ 0¢ $979 $0 −$979 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Clippers 65¢ 0¢ $643 $0 −$643 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3000 and $3100 on July 16 at 5PM ET? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $280 $0 −$280 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October Jun 12 $360 −$360 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3? Jun 12 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on September 26? Jun 12 $858 −$858 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on July 21? Jun 12 $270 −$270 -100%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 25 at 4PM ET? Jun 12 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3000 and $3100 on July 16 at 5P Jun 12 $280 −$280 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on August 18? Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Jun 12 $210 −$210 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 July 28–August 3? Jun 12 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 7? Jun 12 $800 −$800 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 4? Jun 12 $750 −$750 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on August 27? Jun 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27? Jun 12 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 13-19? Jun 12 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19? Jun 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on October Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 21? Jun 12 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $114,000 on October 15? Jun 12 $978 −$1,860 -190%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 2? Jun 12 $820 −$820 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3000 on July 21? Jun 12 $175 −$175 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 22 at 5PM Jun 12 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on July 25? Jun 12 $317 −$317 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 10? Jun 12 $9,600 −$9,600 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 5? Jun 12 $900 −$900 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 18? Jun 12 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 27-November 2? Jun 12 $580 −$580 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $121K on July 28? Jun 12 $705 −$705 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 28? Jun 12 $140 +$90 +64%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than 4400 on August 18 at 5PM ET? Jun 12 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 26? Jun 12 $450 −$450 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120K on July 17 at 5PM ET? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 14? Jun 12 $310 −$310 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on July 25? Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $96,000 November 10-16? Jun 12 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3300 on July 17 at 5PM ET? Jun 12 $270 −$270 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 18 at 5 Jun 12 $700 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin above $120,000 on July 25? Jun 12 $960 −$960 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October Jun 12 $850 −$850 -100%
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? Jun 12 $2,516 −$2,516 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3300 on July 21? Jun 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 18? Jun 12 $560 −$560 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3800 on July 30? Jun 12 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on August 1? Jun 12 $2,040 −$2,040 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 20? Jun 12 $1,335 −$950 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on July 25? Jun 12 $1,985 +$455 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 17 at 5PM Jun 12 $530 −$530 -100%
Bitcoin above $118K on August 20? Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 16? Jun 12 $310 −$310 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112,000 on October 16? Jun 12 $620 −$470 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% −$13,017
crypto 24% −$27,669
economics 11% −$30,662
other 5% +$8,130
finance 4% +$16,499
world 3% +$3,307
tech 1% +$320
politics 1% +$7,414
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $3,223 24d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $6 24d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $2 25d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $302 25d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $37 25d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $72 25d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $102 25d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $26 25d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $21 25d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $42 25d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $15 26d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $212 26d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $181 26d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $6 26d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $8 26d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $22 26d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $4 26d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $3 26d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $3 26d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $3 26d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $212 26d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $3 26d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $979 27d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $42 27d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $3 27d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $5 27d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $2 27d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $2 27d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $19 27d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $35 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -94.8% -95.3% 3% 3% -95.6%
≤30d 68 -91.5% -92.3% 6% 4% -68.3%
≤90d 196 -38.8% -44.7% 45% 33% -18.4%
all 423 -14.2% -22.4% 62% 34% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 34% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 19% -19.5%
15% -36.6% 13% -27.3%
20% -42.8% 10% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55,872.32 · official $55,874.70 (match) · 3500 history records