Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x2698…2941
weather · 493 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$186 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$197 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$100
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses397 / 485
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions23
Markets (closed)882 / 493
History coverage12d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day283.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 23 History 882 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$331
7 days−$271
14 days−$197
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? Yes 52¢ 65¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 71¢ 73¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? No 87¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30? No 71¢ 94¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Down 49¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 72¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No 62¢ 73¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1.5%? Yes 52¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 24? No 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 9? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Over 79¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? Yes 55¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+82%)
Angola vs. Central African Republic: O/U 3.5 Under 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 21? No 58¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+72%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 59¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 175.5 Under 58¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+72%)
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: Both Teams to Score No 58¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+72%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun Las Vegas Aces 85¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Sporting CP vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 2.5 Over 71¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? No 56¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+80%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 20? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 22? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 0.5 Over 82¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 24? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +190%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 12 $1 $0 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 21? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +141%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 +$3 +467%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +177%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Sporting CP vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 20? Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 22? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 13? Jun 12 $1 +$15 +2230%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-25? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +186%
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$2 +422%
CB Breogan Lugo vs. Basquet Girona Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
NEOM SC vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -120%
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? Jun 12 $1 $0 -32%
HYPE Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
NK Osijek vs. NK Slaven Belupo: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
World Championships: Denmark vs. Slovakia Jun 12 $1 −$1 -133%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 25? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +326%
US Catanzaro 1929 vs. US Avellino 1912: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -41%
1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5) Jun 12 $0 +$2 +394%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 20? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +219%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25? Jun 12 $0 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 16? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +288%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +258%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 $0 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 28? Jun 12 $0 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 25? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +354%
CD Cobresal vs. CD Ñublense: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 +60%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-23? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +249%
Will Scotland vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +228%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 22? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +177%
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +290%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +128%
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $0 +$1 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 11? Jun 12 $0 +$4 +860%
Will Solana reach $100 May 4-10? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +322%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ma Jun 12 $0 +$4 +1553%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito De Jun 12 $0 +$1 +346%
Millwall FC vs. Hull City AFC: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $0 +$1 +281%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 12? Jun 12 $0 +$3 +766%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 12 $0 +$5 +2004%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Jun 12 $0 +$1 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -29%
Goiás EC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $0 +$2 +646%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $0 $0 +154%
Will Tegevajaro Miyazaki win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $0 +$4 +1762%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 17? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +294%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 47% +$74
sports 27% +$39
other 12% +$9
politics 5% −$1
world 5% +$23
tech 1% −$2
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 15m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $6 32m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $5 33m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $5 33m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $6 33m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $5 33m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $5 33m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $3 1h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P SELL No 79¢ $6 1h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 71¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 696 +49.8% +35.5% 41% 30% -13.2%
≤30d 882 +51.2% +36.8% 45% 30% -10.6%
≤90d 882 +51.2% +36.8% 45% 30% -10.6%
all 882 +51.2% +36.8% 45% 30% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover283.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +36.8% 30% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here +23.7% 22% -19.2%
15% +11.7% 19% -27.0%
20% +0.8% 17% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.93 · official $35.72 · 3500 history records