Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2693…06e4 crypto 392 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,980 (-9%) realized −$3,974 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%146W / 245L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$318
30 days−$750
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,557
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -22.1% -29.5% 40% 40% -37.0%
≤30d 186 -21.4% -28.9% 34% 32% -23.3%
≤90d 391 -16.8% -24.7% 37% 36% -21.9%
all 391 -16.8% -24.7% 37% 36% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 36% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 32% -29.4%
15% -38.5% 29% -36.2%
20% -44.6% 24% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$85 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,974
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses146 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)391 / 392
History coverage54d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 196 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$16 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $63 −$57 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 06 $41 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $44 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 06 $118 −$64 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 06 $91 −$87 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $39 +$83 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 06 $144 +$30 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 06 $54 −$25 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $65 −$14 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 06 $43 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 06 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 06 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $25 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$36 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 06 $27 −$8 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 06 $57 −$22 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 05 $49 −$46 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $16 +$52 +330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $16 +$33 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 05 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 05 $22 −$18 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $13 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$43 +452%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 05 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$23 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 04 $19 +$10 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $16 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1617 history records