Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2691…2d00 crypto 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$258 (-22%) realized −$258 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$130
other 15% −$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -35.2% -41.3% 18% 18% -36.1%
≤30d 39 -35.2% -41.3% 18% 18% -36.1%
≤90d 39 -35.2% -41.3% 18% 18% -36.1%
all 39 -35.2% -41.3% 18% 18% -36.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.3% 18% -36.1%
10% -47.0% 15% -42.2%
15% -52.1% 15% -47.8%
20% -56.8% 15% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$25 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage5d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $42 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$39 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $48 −$30 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $89 +$169 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $23 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $37 +$162 +441%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$61 +385%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$26 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $179 −$174 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$48 +479%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $57 −$28 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $16 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records