trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 9 | -43.2% | -48.6% | 11% | 11% | -40.8% |
| ≤90d | 25 | -17.8% | -25.7% | 28% | 20% | -22.9% |
| all | 25 | -17.8% | -25.7% | 28% | 20% | -22.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.7% | 20% | -22.9% |
| 10% | -32.8% | 20% | -30.3% |
| 15% | -39.3% | 16% | -37.0% |
| 20% | -45.2% | 12% | -43.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 19¢ | $195 | $441 | +$246 (+126%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 11¢ | $200 | $136 | −$64 (-32%) |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $200 | $1 | −$199 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | Jun 08 | $50 | −$28 | -56% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 08 | $30 | +$22 | +72% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 07 | $70 | −$37 | -53% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 04 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? | Jun 03 | $10 | −$8 | -75% |
| Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? | Jun 03 | $10 | −$6 | -56% |
| Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? | Jun 03 | $10 | −$6 | -58% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | Jun 02 | $26 | −$16 | -62% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | May 31 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the | May 04 | $5 | $0 | -8% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 04 | $7 | $0 | +5% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 04 | $5 | +$3 | +58% |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | May 04 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju | May 03 | $5 | −$3 | -54% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | Apr 30 | $40 | −$4 | -10% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | Apr 24 | $60 | −$14 | -23% |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Apr 15 | $32 | +$28 | +86% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Apr 13 | $25 | −$4 | -18% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Apr 12 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Apr 12 | $38 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026? | Apr 10 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? | Apr 09 | $50 | −$19 | -39% |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026 | Apr 08 | $50 | +$20 | +41% |
| Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? | Apr 08 | $100 | −$16 | -16% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 07 | $200 | +$46 | +23% |