Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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26 0x268b…a36e crypto 1013 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$116 (-4%) realized −$113 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%477W / 526L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day66.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$43
14 days−$121
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$129
sports 17% −$69
other 12% −$35
weather 1% +$16
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 419 -10.3% -18.9% 43% 40% -14.0%
≤30d 855 -10.3% -18.8% 44% 40% -18.1%
≤90d 1003 -9.5% -18.1% 48% 41% -16.4%
all 1003 -9.5% -18.1% 48% 41% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 41% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 33% -24.4%
15% -33.1% 26% -31.7%
20% -39.7% 19% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses477 / 526
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1003 / 1013
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day66.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1003 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 28¢ 9¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 281 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +11%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $1 $0 +12%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $1 $0 +19%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 $0 +18%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India - Who wins the toss? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +47%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 $0 +18%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $5 +$5 +89%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 28 $1 +$4 +413%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $2 +$3 +145%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 28 $1 +$3 +324%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +125%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 -14%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 28 $1 +$5 +473%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $1 +$1 +118%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$3 +300%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 28 $1 $0 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $6 −$5 -81%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $6 −$1 -20%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$2 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India - Who wins the toss? BUY Australia 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 12h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 12h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $1 12h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 12h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 12h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 100¢ $5 12h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 12h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 100¢ $4 13h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.98 · official $19.98 (match) · 2468 history records