Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2689…6bc7 other 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%14W / 150L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$12
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$29
other 30% −$28
sports 17% −$26
crypto 8% −$2
world 6% −$7
economics 3% −$2
finance 3% −$3
culture 2% −$3
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 55 -0.8% -10.2% 2% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 143 -0.7% -10.1% 7% 0% -9.9%
all 164 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses14 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)164 / 164
History coverage104d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 164 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 22 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 14 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $152 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $626 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $45 $0 -1%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $44 +$1 +2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $129 −$2 -1%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $96 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $56 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $56 −$1 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $75 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 07 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $110 −$3 -2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $50 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $341 −$2 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $160 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 05 $61 −$2 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $92 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $56 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 02 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $97 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $146 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $393 −$2 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $47 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $529 −$2 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $106 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $488 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 26 $60 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $46 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $148 −$1 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $20 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 93¢ $65 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 95¢ $66 6h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $44 7d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $44 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $53 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $54 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 8d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $48 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $48 8d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 9d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $49 9d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $32 9d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $3 9d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $29 9d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 9d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 9d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $12 9d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $12 9d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $44 9d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $44 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $53 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $53 10d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 10d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 10d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $18 10d
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 10d
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 11d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $48 11d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $48 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 664 history records