Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:07:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2688…9197 sports 368 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,179 (+6%) realized +$1,172 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%177W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$253est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$723now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$447
7 days+$536
14 days+$1,107
30 days+$516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$790
other 3% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +17.2% +6.0% 59% 59% +6.1%
≤30d 232 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 49% -6.4%
≤90d 356 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 49% -5.0%
all 356 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 49% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 49% -5.0%
10% -19.2% 47% -14.1%
15% -27.0% 44% -22.4%
20% -34.1% 39% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$38 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$723
Realized+$1,172
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses177 / 179
Est. fees paid−$253
Open positions12
Markets (closed)356 / 368
History coverage69d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 68¢ 60¢ $191 $169 −$22 (-11%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears KT Wiz 62¢ 58¢ $175 $164 −$11 (-6%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 49¢ 64¢ $97 $129 +$32 (+33%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Kia Tigers 37¢ 34¢ $104 $94 −$10 (-9%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SSG Landers 47¢ 62¢ $64 $85 +$21 (+32%)
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Alexis Galarneau 42¢ 43¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+3%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Hyeon Chung 51¢ 50¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Grigor Dimitrov 70¢ 73¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Keys (+1.5) Keys 67¢ 68¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Marozsan vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
ITF Haskovo: Berfu Cengiz vs Elena Korokozidi Berfu Cengiz 66¢ 87¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Dalila Spiteri Dalila Spiteri 64¢ 16¢ $6 $2 −$5 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Arthur Bonnaud vs Mickael Kaouk Jun 18 $7 +$3 +46%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Hanna Chang Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 18 $79 +$86 +109%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $33 +$31 +94%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $14 +$11 +76%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $13 +$12 +90%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $166 +$118 +71%
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Shapovalov Jun 17 $17 +$8 +50%
Pegula vs. Siniakova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $132 +$150 +114%
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji Jun 17 $46 +$35 +76%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $29 +$21 +73%
Marozsan vs. Kecmanovic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Set Handicap: Damm (-1.5) vs Brooksby (+1.5) Jun 16 $171 +$111 +65%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Set Handicap: Li (-1.5) vs Birrell (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $29 +$21 +73%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $19 +$13 +70%
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 16 $42 −$1 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $19 +$37 +188%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $7 +$5 +70%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $46 −$5 -10%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $42 −$1 -3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $154 −$154 -100%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $42 −$1 -3%
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Daniel (+1.5) Jun 14 $13 +$9 +70%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $51 +$53 +106%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $40 +$61 +152%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $67 +$60 +90%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $157 +$125 +79%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $4 +$4 +86%
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $42 +$39 +93%
Tarvet vs. Romano: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $159 −$159 -100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $96 +$86 +90%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $58 +$44 +76%
Krejcikova vs. Linette: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 13 $16 +$12 +76%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $27 +$22 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $74 −$74 -100%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $19 +$20 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 49¢ $25 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 47¢ $5 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 47¢ $49 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 46¢ $12 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 49¢ $29 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 48¢ $32 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 48¢ $12 1h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 68¢ $55 1h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 68¢ $70 1h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 67¢ $69 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 37¢ $30 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 37¢ $38 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 37¢ $38 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 62¢ $50 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 62¢ $63 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 62¢ $64 1h
Marozsan vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 1h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Grigor Dimitrov 70¢ $7 2h
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Keys (+1.5) BUY Keys 67¢ $5 4h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Dalila Spiteri BUY Dalila Spiteri 64¢ $7 5h
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 42¢ $41 5h
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 41¢ $5 5h
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Arthur Bonnaud vs Mickael Kaouk BUY Mickael Kaouk 68¢ $7 6h
ITF Haskovo: Berfu Cengiz vs Elena Korokozidi BUY Berfu Cengiz 66¢ $4 7h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $21 11h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Hanna Chang BUY Hanna Chang 68¢ $7 14h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 21¢ $1 15h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 39¢ $13 18h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 54¢ $12 21h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $26 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $722.86 · official $700.35 · 1342 history records