Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x2688…cb00
other · 306 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$1,682 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,587 · open −$1,269
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,047
Realized+$2,587
Unrealized−$1,269
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses141 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions42
Markets (closed)264 / 306
History coverage479d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 42 History 264 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days−$2,184
14 days−$1,345
30 days+$1,354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $883 $881 −$2 (-0%)
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 89¢ $736 $773 +$37 (+5%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 90¢ $715 $773 +$58 (+8%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $719 $771 +$52 (+7%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $1,116 $517 −$599 (-54%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 57¢ $421 $402 −$18 (-4%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 40¢ 37¢ $350 $321 −$29 (-8%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $283 $292 +$9 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 25¢ $214 $235 +$21 (+10%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $172 $202 +$30 (+17%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? Yes 76¢ 64¢ $234 $197 −$37 (-16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 40¢ 38¢ $162 $154 −$8 (-5%)
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $138 $138 +$0 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 66¢ 66¢ $132 $133 +$1 (+1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 70¢ 64¢ $140 $127 −$13 (-9%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 60¢ $101 $117 +$16 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 60¢ 52¢ $120 $105 −$15 (-12%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $100 $101 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 61¢ 46¢ $115 $87 −$28 (-24%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? Yes 57¢ 6¢ $653 $74 −$579 (-89%)
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 15¢ 7¢ $158 $73 −$85 (-54%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 15¢ 16¢ $63 $70 +$6 (+10%)
Databricks vs Salesforce - higher valuation on June 30? Salesforce 55¢ 46¢ $69 $57 −$11 (-17%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $43 $48 +$6 (+13%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $96 $48 −$48 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1,416 +$27 +2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $94 +$3 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $528 +$132 +25%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $37 +$2 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $63 +$13 +20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $1,494 +$190 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $158 +$75 +48%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 09 $58 +$15 +25%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,288 −$873 -68%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $537 −$10 -2%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $198 −$100 -50%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10? Jun 09 $201 +$23 +11%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 09 $519 +$90 +17%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1,846 −$1,338 -72%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $122 −$88 -73%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,562 −$548 -35%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $240 +$48 +20%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $166 −$5 -3%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $134 +$52 +39%
Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during t Jun 08 $91 +$19 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $48 +$2 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $318 +$82 +26%
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $29 +$8 +29%
Will any other model have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 04 $16 −$14 -86%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $6.50 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $135 +$17 +12%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $4.50 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $447 +$33 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,557 +$263 +17%
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $79 +$4 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,062 +$136 +4%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1,458 +$348 +24%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $45 +$8 +18%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $346 +$54 +16%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $454 +$39 +9%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $5.00 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026? May 30 $176 +$6 +3%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? May 29 $581 +$11 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 29 $2,982 +$13 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? May 29 $3,004 +$443 +15%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $800 −$215 -27%
Claude 4.8 released by July 31? May 28 $15 +$4 +29%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? May 28 $89 +$10 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $383 +$60 +16%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 28 $192 −$191 -99%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $14 +$9 +65%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $4 −$2 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $3,509 +$312 +9%
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year? May 25 $169 −$169 -100%
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025? May 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? May 22 $15 +$13 +89%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? May 21 $212 −$65 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 38% +$3,023
world 26% +$873
other 21% −$2,736
finance 7% +$391
culture 2% −$129
politics 2% −$506
sports 2% −$141
economics 1% +$574
crypto 1% +$96
weather 1% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $80 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $211 30m
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $66 33m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $82 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $251 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $250 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $208 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $166 1h
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $128 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $114 1h
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $0 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $19 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $82 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $179 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $116 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 66¢ $132 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $19 1h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $44 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $178 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $165 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $332 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $32 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $118 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $167 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $166 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $247 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $333 2h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $36 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.2% -10.6% 70% 52% -21.6%
≤30d 87 +56.4% +41.5% 83% 60% -4.0%
≤90d 87 +56.4% +41.5% 83% 60% -4.0%
all 264 -1.2% -10.6% 53% 33% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 33% -4.9%
10% -19.2% 21% -14.0%
15% -27.0% 15% -22.3%
20% -34.1% 11% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,047.36 · official $7,046.46 (match) · 3264 history records