Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:03:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2686…d740 crypto 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-4%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%52W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$36
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$26
weather 36% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +21.9% +10.3% 45% 45% +8.3%
≤30d 43 +9.2% -1.2% 49% 40% -1.5%
≤90d 127 -11.6% -20.0% 41% 31% -14.7%
all 127 -11.6% -20.0% 41% 31% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 31% -14.7%
10% -27.7% 24% -22.8%
15% -34.7% 20% -30.3%
20% -41.1% 18% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses52 / 75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage46d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$18 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$6 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$8 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET Jun 08 $41 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $16 +$17 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6AM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5PM ET Jun 07 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11AM ET Jun 07 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7AM ET Jun 07 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4AM ET Jun 07 $43 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $7 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET Jun 07 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET Jun 06 $22 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 06 $2 +$8 +397%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 06 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 06 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 04 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 04 $2 +$3 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.00 (match) · 557 history records