Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2680…06b4 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate22%7W / 25L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% $0
other 23% +$1
politics 8% +$1
finance 5% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 +0.3% -9.2% 18% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 17 +0.3% -9.2% 18% 0% -9.5%
all 32 +0.5% -9.0% 22% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses7 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage309d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $7 $0 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $48 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $49 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $1 $0 -16%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 29 $4 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $45 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $49 4h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $49 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $16 41h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $9 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $8 42h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $38 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $9 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $3 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $49 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $37 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $45 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $4 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $41 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $36 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $9 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.00 · official $44.83 (match) · 277 history records