Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x267f…0222 crypto 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$34 (+2%) realized +$33 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%34W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$4
politics 37% −$2
other 4% +$1
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +44.7% +30.9% 44% 44% -18.3%
≤30d 43 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 47% -18.1%
≤90d 44 -1.8% -11.1% 48% 45% -17.9%
all 62 -0.0% -9.5% 55% 35% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 35% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 35% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 35% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 34% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses34 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage594d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$20 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$21 +80%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$34 +398%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$28 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET Jun 20 $56 −$11 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 04 $34 −$33 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 04 $34 +$53 +154%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 04 $28 +$19 +66%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$23 +89%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$29 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 04 $34 +$12 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 04 $34 −$33 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 04 $31 −$30 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$21 +80%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$22 +87%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$23 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$20 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$21 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$20 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$19 +72%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 04 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$21 +80%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$22 +84%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$20 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$20 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
Will it Snow in New York City this weekend (January 24 - 26)? Apr 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026? Jan 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown? Dec 05 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 05 $107 +$103 +96%
Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the highest ranked song from Taylor Swif Nov 24 $18 $0 +0%
Democratic Margin of victory in VA-11 special election at least 45%? Oct 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025? Sep 22 $17 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $46 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $15 16d
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $34 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $34 16d
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $34 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $34 16d
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 16d
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 16d
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.10 · official $14.10 (match) · 164 history records