Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x267d…bc1e
crypto · 1616 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,665 -39%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,664 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized−$1,664
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses853 / 864
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1717 / 1616
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day404.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1717 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,117
7 days−$1,664
14 days−$1,664
30 days−$1,664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 70¢ 100¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 83¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 61¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 28¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+257%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 69¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 56¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+79%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 71¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 55¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+82%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 54¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+85%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 68¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 55¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+82%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 32¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 63¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+59%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Down 43¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 68¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 55¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+82%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 63¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+59%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 58¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 69¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 51¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 61¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+64%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$595
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1717 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 43% -35.8%
≤30d 1717 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 43% -35.8%
≤90d 1717 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 43% -35.8%
all 1717 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 43% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover404.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 43% -35.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 37% -41.9%
15% -27.7% 31% -47.5%
20% -34.8% 23% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.98 · official $37.04 · 3500 history records