Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:29:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x267c…cdcb crypto 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$223 (-6%) realized −$217 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%59W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,099
7 days−$1,103
14 days−$1,150
30 days−$1,156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,181
sports 0% −$8
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -56.3% -60.5% 4% 4% -91.4%
≤30d 77 +24.9% +13.0% 19% 19% -48.4%
≤90d 188 +6.4% -3.7% 31% 26% -45.5%
all 188 +6.4% -3.7% 31% 26% -45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 26% -45.5%
10% -12.9% 23% -50.7%
15% -21.3% 22% -55.5%
20% -29.0% 21% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$23 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$217
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses59 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)188 / 189
History coverage39d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 6¢ 2¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $91 −$86 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$101 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $88 −$83 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $99 −$94 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $107 −$102 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $138 −$131 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$106 +991%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$10 +322%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $53 +$165 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $63 +$130 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $53 +$257 +485%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 09 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $53 +$222 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$78 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $100 +$316 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $126 −$120 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $91 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 12m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $88 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $100 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $99 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $62 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $32 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $73 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $111 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $20 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $138 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.17 · official $7.50 · 409 history records