Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x267b…0702 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$8
politics 17% −$3
sports 16% −$3
world 6% −$1
finance 6% −$1
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$772) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage99d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 30 $1,227 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jun 30 $52 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 30 $1,280 −$1 -0%
2026 Balance of Power: Other Jun 30 $1,174 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 29 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 29 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 29 $1,302 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,187 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? May 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 15 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 15 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 15 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 14 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland? Apr 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $140 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Mar 28 $209 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 23 $193 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 23 $54 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,225 45m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL No 99¢ $52 51m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,178 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,279 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,269 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 99¢ $1,172 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 2h
2026 Balance of Power: Other BUY No 99¢ $1,174 2h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,185 21h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 21h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 22h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,159 22h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 22h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,219 22h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 22h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 22h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,204 22h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $883 23h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $303 23h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 23h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $18 23h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,187 23h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $42 46d
Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? SELL No 100¢ $35 46d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $32 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records