Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2679…5618 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate71%20W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$4
other 18% +$1
weather 13% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -4.2% -13.3% 71% 32% -13.4%
≤30d 28 -4.2% -13.3% 71% 32% -13.4%
≤90d 28 -4.2% -13.3% 71% 32% -13.4%
all 28 -4.2% -13.3% 71% 32% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 32% -13.4%
10% -21.6% 14% -21.7%
15% -29.2% 0% -29.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses20 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)28 / 36
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 17? No 99¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 88¢ 64¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $6 +$1 +24%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $3 +$1 +17%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $3 −$1 -44%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $6 +$1 +18%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $9 −$3 -36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Seeding Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 88¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 88¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Juan Bautista Torres 31¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 81¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $7 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 80¢ $3 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 79¢ $3 2h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 99¢ $1 2h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 89¢ $1 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa SELL Jeline Vandromme $2 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 10¢ $3 3h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 82¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 80¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 81¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 92¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 91¢ $1 4h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 86¢ $3 4h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 81¢ $3 4h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 85¢ $1 5h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 85¢ $1 5h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 83¢ $1 5h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Sara Bejlek 35¢ $2 5h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Sara Bejlek 36¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.60 · official $17.60 (match) · 76 history records