Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
26 0x2678…cef5 politics 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,577 (-1%) realized −$1,578 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%27W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,628per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$22
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$118
other 41% −$466
sports 13% −$1,017
economics 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 -7.8% -16.6% 5% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 90 -4.6% -13.7% 7% 2% -10.1%
all 146 -1.4% -10.7% 18% 12% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 12% -10.1%
10% -19.3% 12% -18.7%
15% -27.1% 12% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,126) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$29 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$1,155
Realized−$1,578
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses27 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)146 / 149
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,628
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $731 $731 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $212 $213 +$1 (+0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $211 $211 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $2,271 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $733 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,886 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,641 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,990 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,072 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $5,225 −$6 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $2,679 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $929 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,538 −$4 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $7,296 −$8 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,302 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $4,533 −$5 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $4,593 −$5 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,058 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,099 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $631 +$1 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,670 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $357 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,927 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,854 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,903 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $4,079 −$4 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 $78 −$78 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $73 +$35 +48%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,659 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $731 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $734 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $211 3d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $735 3d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $730 3d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $731 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $729 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $730 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $731 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $732 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $750 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $751 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $732 7d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $733 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $755 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $756 7d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $648 7d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $649 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $738 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $739 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $563 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $564 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $545 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $546 12d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $730 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $731 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $843 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $844 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,069 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,070 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,154.87 · official $1,154.87 (match) · 514 history records