Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2676…bed9 world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%25W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$4
politics 26% $0
other 15% $0
sports 14% −$9
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.7%
all 73 -2.8% -12.1% 34% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses25 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)73 / 77
History coverage532d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 63¢ 61¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 25¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+422%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 48¢ 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $145 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $13 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $37 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $63 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $41 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $74 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $45 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $15 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $41 $0 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $38 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $2 $0 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $79 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $133 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $77 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $2 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $54 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $76 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $82 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $3 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $19 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $38 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $9 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $39 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $41 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.92 · official $29.22 (match) · 345 history records