Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2675…750a crypto 479 markets active 2d ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$899 (-5%) realized −$899 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%219W / 260L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,314
other 1% −$39
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% −$4
politics 0% −$3
weather 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -24.3% -31.5% 44% 37% -12.9%
≤30d 52 -24.3% -31.5% 44% 37% -12.9%
≤90d 110 -24.1% -31.3% 41% 31% -19.3%
all 479 -13.0% -21.3% 46% 42% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 42% -17.0%
10% -28.8% 37% -24.9%
15% -35.7% 30% -32.2%
20% -42.0% 23% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$21 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$899
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses219 / 260
Open positions0
Markets (closed)479 / 479
History coverage112d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 479 Trades
no open positions (145 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$16 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$7 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $57 −$40 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$30 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $57 +$27 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $77 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $129 +$30 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $37 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $78 +$38 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $7 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $12 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $7 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $15 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $6 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $12 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $19 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $15 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $7 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1410 history records