Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
26 0x2675…5bf9 world 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,199 (-10%) realized −$3,257 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%91W / 110L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$5,506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,589
7 days−$1,472
14 days−$1,527
30 days−$2,230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$2,760
other 13% +$7
politics 5% −$342
crypto 1% −$30
sports 0% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -28.1% -35.0% 29% 29% -35.7%
≤30d 70 -5.8% -14.7% 59% 36% -21.5%
≤90d 193 -14.2% -22.4% 45% 32% -20.5%
all 201 -12.2% -20.5% 45% 32% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 32% -20.4%
10% -28.2% 20% -28.0%
15% -35.1% 15% -35.0%
20% -41.5% 12% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$64 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$5,506
Realized−$3,257
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses91 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions16
Markets (closed)201 / 217
History coverage138d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $1,734 $1,725 −$9 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 78¢ $565 $533 −$32 (-6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 85¢ $532 $529 −$3 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 83¢ 93¢ $376 $421 +$45 (+12%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 87¢ 91¢ $400 $416 +$16 (+4%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 42¢ 48¢ $358 $412 +$54 (+15%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $290 $306 +$16 (+6%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 74¢ $196 $207 +$11 (+6%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 87¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? No 91¢ 75¢ $170 $141 −$29 (-17%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 83¢ 94¢ $111 $126 +$15 (+13%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 75¢ 62¢ $150 $124 −$26 (-17%)
Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 91¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? No 89¢ 87¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 83¢ 84¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $273 −$182 -67%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $699 −$13 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 18 $136 −$74 -54%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 17 $315 −$23 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 17 $476 −$428 -90%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $470 −$423 -90%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $694 −$513 -74%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $309 +$66 +22%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$74 -74%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $273 −$188 -69%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $150 +$18 +12%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 14 $514 −$2 -0%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $312 +$38 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $369 +$324 +88%
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit? Jun 10 $71 +$2 +2%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $237 +$28 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $400 −$135 -34%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $100 +$25 +25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $80 +$49 +61%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $100 −$18 -18%
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? Jun 07 $100 +$9 +9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $200 +$30 +15%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$16 +16%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $262 +$12 +5%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in June? Jun 06 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $163 −$16 -10%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Jun 05 $114 +$5 +4%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 05 $150 −$95 -64%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Jun 05 $50 −$34 -68%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $50 −$6 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $343 +$49 +14%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 04 $50 −$1 -2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 04 $121 +$7 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 03 $105 +$7 +6%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 03 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 02 $82 +$4 +5%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, Jun 02 $260 +$18 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $100 +$12 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $54 +$7 +14%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? May 31 $169 −$69 -41%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 31 $1,124 +$209 +19%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 30 $327 +$64 +20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $85 +$11 +13%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 30 $472 −$2 -0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 30 $290 −$175 -60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 30 $956 +$287 +30%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 30 $103 +$44 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $292 +$13 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $90 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 9¢ $91 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $9 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $93 23h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 75¢ $150 23h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 34¢ $44 23h
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? SELL No 77¢ $197 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $150 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $48 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $47 27h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $54 27h
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? BUY No 91¢ $170 31h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $202 31h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 83¢ $111 2d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $26 2d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 17¢ $85 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $69 3d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $168 3d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $70 3d
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $201 3d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $202 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $30 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 90¢ $504 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $250 5d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $101 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $370 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,505.67 · official $5,491.73 (match) · 817 history records