Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2673…5ac9 sports 682 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,244 (-4%) realized −$1,253 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%240W / 435L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day62.1pace
Fees−$339est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$2,301
sports 40% −$361
crypto 8% −$608
politics 3% +$6
world 0% −$19
tech 0% −$40
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -12.4% -20.7% 29% 29% -5.9%
≤30d 337 -11.1% -19.5% 34% 31% -15.6%
≤90d 675 -11.8% -20.2% 36% 32% -18.1%
all 675 -11.8% -20.2% 36% 32% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 32% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 29% -26.0%
15% -34.8% 25% -33.1%
20% -41.2% 20% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$1,253
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses240 / 435
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$339
Open positions3
Markets (closed)675 / 682
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day62.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 675 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $202 $212 +$10 (+5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $46 −$9 -20%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $118 −$7 -6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $80 +$31 +38%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -39%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $215 −$12 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $185 −$73 -39%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$8 -67%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $81 −$55 -68%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 17 $123 +$371 +301%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $14 −$9 -67%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $107 +$50 +46%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 17 $31 −$31 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conferenc Jun 17 $22 −$3 -13%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 +$14 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $71 −$20 -28%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 −$10 -53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 16 $42 −$3 -8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $22 −$2 -10%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $81 +$71 +88%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$24 -34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $60 +$31 +52%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 15 $99 −$33 -33%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$23 -84%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 15 $26 +$24 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $136 −$5 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $98 −$30 -30%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $143 −$81 -57%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $272 +$360 +132%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $280 +$77 +28%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $76 +$19 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $47 −$19 -41%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $90 +$9 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 −$28 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 56¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $37 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 8h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $111 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 50¢ $35 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $69 11h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $19 13h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 23h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $61 24h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $96 24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $48 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 25h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 25h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 26h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 26h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 26h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 26h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 29h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $27 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.46 · official $279.46 · 3500 history records