Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2670…fd0a crypto 663 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (267 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,653 (-136%) realized −$9,653 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate28%315W / 792L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day267.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$386
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (267 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 768 -55.1% -59.4% 23% 11% -88.8%
≤30d 1107 -39.6% -45.3% 28% 14% -79.1%
≤90d 1107 -39.6% -45.3% 28% 14% -79.1%
all 1107 -39.6% -45.3% 28% 14% -79.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover267.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.3% 14% -79.1%
10% ← realistic here -50.5% 6% -81.1%
15% -55.3% 4% -82.9%
20% -59.7% 4% -84.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$29 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,653
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses315 / 792
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1107 / 663
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day267.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1107 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$3 -142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -16791%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -1485%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$2 -275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$4 -248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$6 -15705%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$3 -439%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$7 -18581%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$2 -259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$2 -267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$2 -266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$56 -152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -10193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 5? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$2 -130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $12 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records