Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x266f…aad4
politics · 67 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$17 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage651d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 0 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? Apr 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 11 $59 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Nov 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will LaMelo Ball lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Jumper airdrop in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Monkeypox lab leak confirmed by US in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Rob Goldstein announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2 Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor before 2025? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Devin Booker win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 in December? Dec 20 $0 $0 -3%
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jackson Arnold win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Real Betis win La Liga? Nov 18 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 18 $0 $0 -0%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024? Nov 12 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 75% −$13
other 12% −$2
economics 11% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 15h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 10d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 26d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $58 34d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 34d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 34d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 34d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 34d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 34d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $59 58d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $59 59d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $59 62d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $59 62d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $59 83d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 84d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 87d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 88d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $59 91d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $59 92d
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $59 93d
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $59 93d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $59 95d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $59 95d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $59 99d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $59 99d
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 67 -1.9% -11.2% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records