Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x266d…8d58 sports 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%37W / 4L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$11
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 41 -1.0% -10.4% 90% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 41 -1.0% -10.4% 90% 0% -8.1%
all 41 -1.0% -10.4% 90% 0% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -8.1%
10% -19.0% 0% -16.9%
15% -26.8% 0% -25.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses37 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage12d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 95¢ 100¢ $28 $30 +$1 (+5%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 95¢ 94¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $29 +$1 +3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $9 +$1 +6%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $9 +$1 +9%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $7 −$2 -32%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $5 −$2 -49%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $5 $0 +6%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $5 $0 +10%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $15 +$1 +4%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $10 $0 +4%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $4 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 95¢ $29 1m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 95¢ $29 28m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 97¢ $29 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 98¢ $29 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 96¢ $29 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 94¢ $19 18h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 97¢ $19 19h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 98¢ $20 19h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 97¢ $19 20h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 97¢ $19 40h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 96¢ $19 43h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 98¢ $20 43h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $20 43h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 96¢ $19 43h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 99¢ $10 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 96¢ $10 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 98¢ $10 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 97¢ $10 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 98¢ $10 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 94¢ $9 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 98¢ $10 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 95¢ $10 6d
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics SELL Indiana Fever 46¢ $5 8d
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics BUY Indiana Fever 66¢ $7 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 94¢ $9 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 97¢ $10 8d
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun BUY New York Liberty 92¢ $9 8d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 96¢ $5 10d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Seattle Mariners 47¢ $2 10d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 96¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.34 · official $58.34 (match) · 95 history records