Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x266b…41bb world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$1
other 11% −$3
finance 4% $0
politics 4% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 25% 8% -9.3%
≤30d 24 -3.2% -12.4% 29% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 25 -7.1% -15.9% 28% 4% -9.6%
all 39 -7.3% -16.1% 38% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 3% -9.7%
10% -24.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage450d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $47 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $38 −$2 -5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $83 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $28 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $180 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $87 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Dec 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the Hart Trophy? Apr 10 $9 $0 -5%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $12 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Eric Adams a Republican before April? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $46 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $46 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $33 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $47 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $47 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $46 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $47 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $32 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $40 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $27 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $21 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $19 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $39 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records