Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
26 0x266a…3579 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,815 (-40%) realized −$1,807 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$105
14 days−$1,736
30 days−$1,831
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,914
other 4% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +76.9% +60.0% 38% 38% -16.6%
≤30d 32 +6.2% -3.9% 31% 31% -47.0%
≤90d 32 +6.2% -3.9% 31% 31% -47.0%
all 32 +6.2% -3.9% 31% 31% -47.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 31% -47.0%
10% -13.1% 31% -52.0%
15% -21.5% 31% -56.7%
20% -29.2% 31% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$151 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1,807
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage18d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $38 $30 −$8 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $183 +$164 +89%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $245 −$241 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $151 −$148 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $80 +$66 +83%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $18 +$206 +1116%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $61 +$254 +414%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $180 −$177 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $99 −$98 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $80 −$79 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $915 −$900 -98%
Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 05 $289 −$285 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $197 −$193 -98%
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 05 $116 −$113 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $184 +$129 +70%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $67 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $94 +$72 +76%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $91 −$89 -98%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $217 +$316 +145%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $102 −$69 -67%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $239 −$236 -98%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $76 +$164 +216%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5 May 31 $48 +$28 +58%
CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $90 −$89 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $83 −$81 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $347 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $183 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $245 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $151 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 35¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $200 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 25¢ $46 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 50¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 37¢ $45 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $80 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 26¢ $41 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $18 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $61 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 40¢ $180 6d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY INOX Division 52¢ $99 7d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY M80 35¢ $80 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 10d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 43¢ $915 10d
Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) BUY BIG 48¢ $289 12d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 31¢ $197 12d
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) BUY Liquid 36¢ $116 12d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner SELL TYLOO 100¢ $313 12d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner BUY TYLOO 58¢ $184 12d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner BUY Heroic 48¢ $99 13d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner BUY Heroic 42¢ $67 13d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner SELL MIBR 100¢ $166 13d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner BUY MIBR 56¢ $94 13d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Heroic 62¢ $41 15d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St BUY MIBR 43¢ $91 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.47 · official $30.47 (match) · 53 history records