Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2669…946f other 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$43
sports 22% −$18
politics 11% −$10
economics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)254 / 255
History coverage132d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $350 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $406 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $228 $0 +0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $712 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $253 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $300 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $302 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $258 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $349 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $253 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $246 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $171 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $200 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $693 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 06 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $127 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $158 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $653 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $248 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 3h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 4h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 5h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 7h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 8h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 11h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 13h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 14h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 16h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 19h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 20h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 21h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 23h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 25h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 26h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 28h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 30h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 31h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 32h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 33h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $57 36h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $57 38h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 42h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 43h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 45h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 47h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.88 · official $55.88 (match) · 1402 history records