Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2668…94bd crypto 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%61W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$19
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -5.5% -14.5% 61% 52% -11.6%
≤30d 100 -5.5% -14.5% 61% 52% -11.6%
≤90d 100 -5.5% -14.5% 61% 52% -11.6%
all 100 -5.5% -14.5% 61% 52% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 52% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 40% -20.0%
15% -30.2% 26% -27.7%
20% -37.0% 15% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2.0867082714748046% → late -8.93900922685165% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses61 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage7d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 10? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 10? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$6 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $12 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records