Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x2664…adc1 sports 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate84%89W / 17L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$493per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$2
other 2% +$9
sports 1% +$32
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
world 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 106 +3.1% -6.7% 84% 25% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 25% -9.5%
10% -15.6% 22% -18.1%
15% -23.8% 18% -26.0%
20% -31.3% 14% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses89 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage613d
Avg bet$493
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the March Meeting? Apr 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January? Feb 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Jan 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Google reach $420 in December? Jan 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $245 before 2026?? Jan 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA reach $252 in November? Dec 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $578 in November? Dec 05 $40 $0 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Bruins Nov 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5) Nov 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers Nov 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Canucks vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 Nov 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Kings (-1.5) Nov 28 $9 +$3 +37%
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5 Nov 28 $7 +$7 +89%
Devils vs. Kings: O/U 6.5 Nov 28 $9 +$7 +75%
Spread: Wild (-1.5) Nov 28 $6 +$10 +165%
Canucks vs. Wild Nov 28 $11 +$7 +67%
Devils vs. Kings Nov 28 $9 +$10 +108%
Senators vs. Blackhawks Nov 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Nov 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Rangers (-1.5) Nov 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Canadiens vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5 Nov 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Rangers vs. Canucks Nov 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Canadiens vs. Kraken Nov 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Kings (-1.5) Nov 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Devils vs. Avalanche Nov 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Senators (-1.5) Nov 01 $5 +$2 +47%
Senators vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5 Nov 01 $5 +$4 +85%
Utah vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 Nov 01 $5 +$6 +122%
Spread: Oilers (-1.5) Nov 01 $5 +$9 +170%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) Nov 01 $10 +$5 +47%
Devils vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 Nov 01 $7 +$8 +113%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 01 $16 $0 +0%
Rangers vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5 Nov 01 $10 +$7 +67%
Kings vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5 Nov 01 $10 +$8 +79%
Kings vs. Sharks Nov 01 $12 +$6 +54%
Utah vs. Oilers Nov 01 $12 +$8 +72%
Packers vs. Steelers: O/U 44.5 Oct 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Commanders vs. Chiefs Oct 28 $20 +$4 +18%
Packers vs. Steelers Oct 28 $40 +$25 +61%
Spread: Packers (-3.5) Oct 28 $40 +$42 +104%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 21 $76 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Aug 21 $42 +$3 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Aug 04 $114 $0 +0%
Will Parham Maghsoodloo win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vega Jul 21 $101 +$1 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto win the 2025 Canadian GP pole? Jul 12 $115 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 30d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $100 67d
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the March Meeting? BUY No 100¢ $100 106d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY No 100¢ $101 139d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January? BUY No 100¢ $101 162d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $19 204d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 204d
Will Google reach $420 in December? BUY No 100¢ $24 204d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $245 before 2026?? BUY No 99¢ $35 204d
Will Tesla reach $578 in November? BUY No 100¢ $40 211d
Will NVIDIA reach $252 in November? BUY No 100¢ $30 211d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $30 211d
Hurricanes vs. Bruins BUY Hurricanes 61¢ $5 238d
Devils vs. Kings: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $9 238d
Spread: Kings (-1.5) BUY Devils 73¢ $9 238d
Devils vs. Kings BUY Devils 48¢ $9 238d
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $7 238d
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5) BUY Flyers 69¢ $7 238d
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 48¢ $8 238d
Canucks vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 59¢ $11 238d
Spread: Wild (-1.5) BUY Wild 38¢ $6 238d
Canucks vs. Wild BUY Wild 60¢ $11 238d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? BUY No 100¢ $16 241d
Kings vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 241d
Spread: Kings (-1.5) BUY Kings 45¢ $10 241d
Kings vs. Sharks BUY Kings 65¢ $12 241d
Canadiens vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 241d
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) BUY Kraken 68¢ $10 241d
Canadiens vs. Kraken BUY Kraken 47¢ $10 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.15 · official $100.15 (match) · 235 history records