Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x2663…ed1f
politics · 15 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$667,043 +653%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$23,704 · open −$90,035
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$152,295
Realized−$23,704
Unrealized−$90,035
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions164
Markets (closed)4 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6,808
Trades / day1309.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 164 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23,704
7 days−$23,704
14 days−$23,704
30 days−$23,704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $1,953 $11,310 +$9,357 (+479%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 33¢ $205 $8,718 +$8,513 (+4156%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $1,610 $7,199 +$5,589 (+347%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $1,434 $6,755 +$5,321 (+371%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4,671 $4,548 −$123 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $998 $3,085 +$2,087 (+209%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5,296 $2,701 −$2,595 (-49%)
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,169 $2,377 +$208 (+10%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,961 $2,234 +$273 (+14%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,501 $2,221 −$280 (-11%)
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,191 $2,183 −$8 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,073 $2,133 +$60 (+3%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,054 $2,131 +$77 (+4%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,080 $2,085 +$5 (+0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9,275 $2,048 −$7,227 (-78%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,644 $2,032 −$1,612 (-44%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,235 $1,970 −$265 (-12%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,290 $1,906 −$385 (-17%)
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,815 $1,883 +$68 (+4%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 7¢ $193 $1,836 +$1,644 (+854%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,690 $1,814 +$124 (+7%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12,186 $1,773 −$10,413 (-85%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,608 $1,763 +$154 (+10%)
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,739 $1,697 −$42 (-2%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,620 $1,640 +$20 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $998 −$13,575 -1360%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 14 $46 +$77 +170%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $998 −$10,086 -1010%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 14 $121 −$121 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$90,605
politics 0% +$570
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3m
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3m
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3m
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $40 5m
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7m
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 7m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7m
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 8m
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $76 8m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 9m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 9m
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 10m
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 11m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 11m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 11m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $49 11m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -32.6% -39.0% 25% 25% -94.8%
≤30d 4 -32.6% -39.0% 25% 25% -94.8%
≤90d 4 -32.6% -39.0% 25% 25% -94.8%
all 4 -32.6% -39.0% 25% 25% -94.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1309.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.0% 25% -94.8%
10% -44.9% 25% -95.3%
15% ← realistic here -50.2% 25% -95.8%
20% -55.1% 25% -96.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152,294.60 · official $152,294.48 (match) · 3500 history records