Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2661…5d3d crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$115 (-12%) realized −$113 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$123
14 days−$123
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$202
politics 12% −$45
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-54.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -96.5% -96.8% 0% 0% -95.1%
≤30d 2 -96.5% -96.8% 0% 0% -95.1%
≤90d 7 -30.2% -36.8% 43% 43% -90.8%
all 49 -49.3% -54.1% 27% 27% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.1% 27% -37.9%
10% -58.5% 16% -43.8%
15% -62.5% 14% -49.3%
20% -66.2% 14% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage181d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $233 −$93 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 12 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 12 $3 +$3 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 12 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 18 $33 −$33 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 18 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 18 $201 +$164 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9AM ET Feb 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 18 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 18 $31 −$21 -69%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p Feb 10 $105 −$42 -40%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh Feb 05 $17 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 29 $43 −$16 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Dec 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Dec 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Dec 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Dec 30 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Dec 30 $2 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Dec 30 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Dec 30 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 8AM ET Dec 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 18 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 18 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Dec 18 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Dec 18 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 18 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 18 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Dec 18 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Dec 18 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Dec 18 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Dec 18 $3 +$4 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $35 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $6 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $4 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $33 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $201 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $20 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $6 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $33 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.12 · official $1.88 (match) · 125 history records