Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2660…059a crypto 177 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$48 (-7%) realized −$57 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%62W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day61.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$59
culture 13% −$5
sports 2% −$1
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -21.0% -28.5% 35% 31% -19.7%
≤30d 176 -21.0% -28.5% 35% 31% -19.7%
≤90d 176 -21.0% -28.5% 35% 31% -19.7%
all 176 -21.0% -28.5% 35% 31% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 31% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 29% -27.4%
15% -41.6% 27% -34.4%
20% -47.3% 24% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses62 / 114
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)176 / 177
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Down 39¢ 98¢ $6 $14 +$9 (+155%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +146%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +181%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +266%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$6 +204%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +159%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.18 · official $14.18 (match) · 345 history records