trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -28.4% | -35.3% | 43% | 43% | -34.4% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -28.4% | -35.3% | 43% | 43% | -34.4% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -19.7% | -27.4% | 43% | 43% | -28.8% |
| all | 17 | -14.9% | -23.0% | 47% | 47% | -26.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.0% | 47% | -26.5% |
| 10% | -30.4% | 47% | -33.5% |
| 15% | -37.1% | 35% | -39.9% |
| 20% | -43.3% | 12% | -45.8% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 | Jun 12 | $125 | −$124 | -100% |
| Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 | Jun 12 | $99 | +$25 | +26% |
| Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 | Jun 12 | $34 | +$8 | +24% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $24 | +$10 | +43% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 11 | $25 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 10 | $3 | −$3 | -88% |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Apr 19 | $17 | +$8 | +44% |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Apr 13 | $3 | −$1 | -42% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Apr 12 | $12 | +$5 | +44% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | Mar 30 | $12 | $0 | -2% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Mar 24 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Mar 23 | $5 | −$4 | -79% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Mar 23 | $7 | +$4 | +58% |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | Mar 09 | $10 | +$8 | +76% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET | Mar 06 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | Mar 06 | $6 | +$3 | +47% |