Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x265d…c792
crypto · 235 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$817 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$817 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$817
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses134 / 101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage103d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 235 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $38 −$15 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$8 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 07 $97 −$25 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 07 $31 −$13 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 07 $89 −$52 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 07 $31 −$12 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 07 $31 −$17 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 07 $62 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 07 $31 +$27 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 07 $31 −$11 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 07 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 07 $31 +$28 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 06 $31 +$26 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 06 $95 −$42 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 06 $62 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 06 $32 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 06 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 06 $46 +$27 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 06 $41 +$35 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 06 $41 −$34 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 06 $75 +$48 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 06 $52 −$46 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 06 $92 +$51 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 06 $42 +$53 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 06 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 06 $133 −$69 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$817
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $12 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $13 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $9 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $13 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $13 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $13 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $12 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $19 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $12 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $11 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $13 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $14 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $13 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $12 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $17 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $16 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $13 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +9.2% -1.2% 56% 48% -3.3%
≤30d 25 +9.2% -1.2% 56% 48% -3.3%
≤90d 81 +0.1% -9.5% 54% 47% -19.9%
all 235 +2.4% -7.3% 57% 51% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 51% -18.0%
10% -16.2% 40% -25.8%
15% -24.3% 33% -33.0%
20% -31.7% 26% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 886 history records