Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
26 0x265c…198f sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+3%) realized +$85 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$285
7 days−$252
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$234
other 29% −$254
sports 14% +$47
crypto 5% +$2
world 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -21.4% -28.9% 40% 40% -39.9%
≤30d 11 -17.9% -25.7% 45% 45% -10.3%
≤90d 11 -17.9% -25.7% 45% 45% -10.3%
all 11 -17.9% -25.7% 45% 45% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 45% -10.3%
10% -32.8% 36% -18.8%
15% -39.3% 36% -26.7%
20% -45.3% 27% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$70 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$478
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions10
Markets (closed)11 / 23
History coverage8d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $84 $87 +$3 (+3%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $84 $81 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 43¢ 42¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $44 $49 +$5 (+11%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 22¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 43¢ 36¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-15%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Algeria 3¢ 3¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 +$10 +57%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$79 +128%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$20 +67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 16 $85 −$8 -10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $141 −$140 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $142 −$140 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $141 +$61 +43%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $1,413 +$234 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $18 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 91¢ $140 3h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 3h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 22¢ $31 18h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $61 18h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $30 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 18h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $31 18h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 18h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 3¢ $5 19h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $61 19h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $85 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 23h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $81 24h
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr SELL Yes 43¢ $77 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $141 29h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $85 29h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $85 30h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $86 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 34¢ $29 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $142 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $57 32h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 28¢ $57 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $29 4d
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 46¢ $28 4d
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 46¢ $57 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $203 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $141 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.38 · official $478.30 (match) · 41 history records