Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:31:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x2659…3809 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$563 (+6%) realized +$563 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate95%19W / 1L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$488per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$248
7 days+$248
14 days+$769
30 days+$770
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$625
other 31% +$163
crypto 11% +$1
culture 6% +$1
world 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +16.9% +5.8% 100% 50% +5.8%
≤30d 8 +18.8% +7.5% 88% 50% +8.0%
≤90d 18 +8.5% -1.8% 94% 22% -1.4%
all 20 +7.7% -2.5% 95% 20% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 20% -2.2%
10% -11.9% 20% -11.6%
15% -20.4% 10% -20.1%
20% -28.2% 10% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$537) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$194 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.08 per $1 lost it wins $5.08
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$563
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses19 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage108d
Avg bet$488
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $735 +$248 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $734 +$1 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $555 +$179 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $525 +$354 +67%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $345 +$180 +52%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $539 −$194 -36%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 02 $221 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 02 $316 +$1 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 27 $537 +$1 +0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 18 $520 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 8? May 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 8? May 16 $330 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 28 $535 +$2 +0%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 23 $530 +$5 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 13 above $7.00? Apr 18 $528 +$1 +0%
76ers vs. Rockets Apr 10 $528 +$1 +0%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 03 $523 +$5 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March? Apr 01 $522 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 21? Mar 23 $522 +$1 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Mar 12 $518 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 92¢ $982 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 68¢ $735 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 100¢ $734 24h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 75¢ $555 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $525 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $345 10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 46¢ $345 10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $539 11d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $221 31d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $316 31d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l BUY No 100¢ $537 34d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 100¢ $520 43d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $200 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $330 53d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 100¢ $535 62d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 99¢ $530 66d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 13 above $7.00? BUY No 100¢ $528 75d
76ers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 100¢ $528 79d
Hawks vs. Magic BUY Hawks 99¢ $523 87d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $522 95d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $522 100d
Timberwolves vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 99¢ $518 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records