Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x2659…148f
other · 7 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$145 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$144 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$96
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$144
7 days−$144
14 days−$144
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $157 −$155 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 −$16 -52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 −$32 -77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $145 +$60 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 99% −$144
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $99 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $157 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -48.4% -53.3% 17% 17% -44.1%
≤30d 6 -48.4% -53.3% 17% 17% -44.1%
≤90d 6 -48.4% -53.3% 17% 17% -44.1%
all 6 -48.4% -53.3% 17% 17% -44.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.3% 17% -44.1%
10% -57.7% 17% -49.5%
15% -61.8% 17% -54.4%
20% -65.6% 0% -58.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.38 · official $96.38 (match) · 15 history records