Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2658…d25b other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 718d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-2%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%44W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$23
politics 37% −$36
world 10% +$2
crypto 7% +$1
economics 2% +$2
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -32.1% -38.6% 67% 0% -22.5%
all 48 -5.6% -14.6% 92% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 0% -11.5%
10% -22.8% 0% -20.0%
15% -30.2% 0% -27.7%
20% -37.1% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$22 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

718d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses44 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage718d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 17 $65 +$2 +4%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Apr 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Apr 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026? Mar 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026? Mar 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Feb 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $50 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 27 $55 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Jan 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Octo Nov 01 $28 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 03 $219 +$1 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 16 $20 $0 +2%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 19 $119 $0 +0%
Farcaster airdrop in Q1 2025? Apr 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28? Feb 26 $89 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1? Feb 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump create a Bitcoin reserve in first week? Jan 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon Edward Snowden? Jan 21 $39 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 05 $35 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Jan 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch a token in November? Dec 02 $54 $0 +1%
Will Trump tweet 50 or more times Nov 8-15? Nov 18 $64 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $74 $0 +0%
Will Biden resign before the election? Nov 06 $14 $0 +1%
Trump in jail before election day? Nov 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times November 1-8? Nov 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in October? Nov 02 $59 $0 +0%
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) 10b or more one week after launch? Oct 17 $11 $0 +2%
Will Biden drop out on July 21? Oct 02 $40 −$40 -100%
PartyDAO airdrop by September 30? Oct 02 $14 $0 +0%
Trump posts less than 5 times on X? Sep 01 $96 $0 +0%
Trump posts 100 or more times on X? Aug 25 $96 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 6 times this week? Aug 21 $96 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? Aug 18 $96 $0 +0%
China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kamala drop out in July? Aug 06 $24 $0 +0%
NVIDIA largest company in July? Aug 06 $16 $0 +1%
Fed rate cut by July 31? Aug 06 $54 +$2 +4%
Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? Jul 30 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Biden drop out on July 20? Jul 21 $93 $0 +0%
Biden drops out by July 19? Jul 19 $131 +$1 +0%
Ethereum all time high in June? Jul 11 $57 $0 +0%
Argent airdrop by June 30? Jul 09 $75 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $77 1h
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $65 38d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $29 62d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $38 66d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 97d
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 101d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 100¢ $40 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $50 131d
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 152d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? BUY No 99¢ $25 189d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY No 30¢ $25 207d
Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Octo BUY No 100¢ $28 231d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 100¢ $219 269d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? BUY No 98¢ $20 313d
US military action against Iran by Friday? BUY No 97¢ $19 362d
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? BUY No 100¢ $59 403d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? BUY No 100¢ $119 428d
Farcaster airdrop in Q1 2025? BUY No 100¢ $10 457d
Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28? BUY No 100¢ $89 477d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY No 100¢ $17 500d
Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1? BUY No 100¢ $36 504d
Will Trump create a Bitcoin reserve in first week? BUY No 100¢ $32 507d
Will Biden pardon Edward Snowden? BUY No 99¢ $39 515d
Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10? BUY Yes $2 524d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? BUY No 100¢ $40 535d
Tether Insolvent in 2024? BUY No 99¢ $35 555d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $20 563d
Will Berachain launch a token in November? BUY No 99¢ $54 569d
Will Trump tweet 50 or more times Nov 8-15? BUY No 100¢ $64 579d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 100¢ $74 587d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.69 · official $76.69 (match) · 102 history records