Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
26 0x2656…a20c weather 318 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$84 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%257W / 59L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% −$179
crypto 25% −$7,042
other 17% −$3,478
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 100 -13.9% -22.1% 86% 0% -22.1%
≤90d 316 -10.5% -19.0% 81% 0% -19.3%
all 316 -10.5% -19.0% 81% 0% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -19.3%
10% -26.8% 0% -27.0%
15% -33.8% 0% -34.0%
20% -40.3% 0% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$193 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$401
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses257 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)316 / 318
History coverage69d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $254 $254 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $148 $148 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $156 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $246 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $401 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $401 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $398 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $794 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $396 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $204 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $396 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $794 −$397 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $269 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 13 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $396 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $396 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $395 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 12? Jun 12 $792 −$396 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $396 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $394 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $785 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 11 $389 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $392 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $392 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $782 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $391 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $275 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 9? Jun 09 $391 −$196 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $783 −$392 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $392 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $391 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $784 −$392 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 08 $392 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $391 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 7? Jun 07 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 07 $390 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 7? Jun 07 $782 −$391 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $308 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $391 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 6? Jun 06 $781 −$391 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $391 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $139 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $142 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $115 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $68 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $147 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $23 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $9 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $13 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $39 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $82 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $401 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $401 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $400 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $399 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $399 8d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $354 8d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $45 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $398 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $196 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $200 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $396 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $397 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $161 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.25 · official $402.06 (match) · 1024 history records