Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2655…da84 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$1 (-6%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% $0
other 26% −$4
crypto 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -26.9% -33.9% 25% 25% -37.9%
≤30d 8 -26.9% -33.9% 25% 25% -37.9%
≤90d 8 -26.9% -33.9% 25% 25% -37.9%
all 8 -26.9% -33.9% 25% 25% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 25% -37.9%
10% -40.2% 25% -43.9%
15% -46.0% 12% -49.3%
20% -51.3% 12% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -90%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +249%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 42m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 43m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 56m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 12h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 13h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records