Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2654…b45f sports 510 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (357 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$1,982 (+32%) realized +$1,978 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%404W / 466L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day357.2pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 42% +$7
sports 39% +$109
other 11% +$40
world 5% +$9
politics 2% +$2
tech 1% −$6
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (357 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 733 +37.9% +24.7% 44% 32% -11.4%
≤30d 870 +36.5% +23.5% 46% 31% -10.9%
≤90d 870 +36.5% +23.5% 46% 31% -10.9%
all 870 +36.5% +23.5% 46% 31% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover357.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.5% 31% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here +11.6% 23% -19.4%
15% +0.9% 19% -27.2%
20% -9.0% 17% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$1,978
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses404 / 466
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions47
Markets (closed)870 / 510
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day357.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 870 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Aster reach $2.00 by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 38¢ 94¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+149%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
X banned in any European country by December 31? No 56¢ 69¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 15? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 82¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+47%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 78¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will XRP dip to $0.40 by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 86¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Club Blooming vs. GV CD San José: O/U 4.5 Under 77¢ 49¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 76¢ 85¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+29%)
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? No 64¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Yes 50¢ 81¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Yes 71¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+40%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 46¢ 43¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Milady floor price reach 2 ETH before 2027? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 47¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 73¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 68¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 61¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? No 43¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 452 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roasso Kumamoto win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 25? Jun 15 $1 $0 -40%
Nagasaki Velca vs. Ryukyu Golden Kings Jun 15 $0 $0 +100%
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Pharco FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 23? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +532%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 27? Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Rwanda vs Ivory Coast Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 4–May 10 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 +$5 +840%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 4? Jun 15 $0 $0 +62%
Will Trump say "Insurance" during Healthcare Affordability Events? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -176%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +175%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 159.5 Jun 15 $0 +$1 +137%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma Jun 15 $1 $0 +63%
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Santos FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -62%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +387%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 +$2 +427%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 Jun 15 $1 +$3 +485%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 2? Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
FC Lorient vs. Le Havre AC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +249%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 22? Jun 15 $1 $0 +71%
Blaublitz Akita vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 +$1 +342%
Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $0 +$1 +157%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +182%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 11? Jun 15 $1 $0 +72%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 165.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +248%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $0 −$1 -115%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 26? Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 12? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +209%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 25? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +243%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 16? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +218%
FC Porto vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +63%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +138%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 15 $0 $0 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 23? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +268%
LoL: GAM Esports vs MVK Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Asia-Pacific Jun 15 $1 +$2 +318%
SC Sagamihara vs. Vanraure Hachinohe FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 +$1 +262%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 22? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +313%
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 15 $0 +$3 +815%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 15 $0 +$4 +1034%
Blaublitz Akita vs. Tochigi City FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 15 $0 $0 -54%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on May 13? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +120%
SK Brann vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $0 +$1 +219%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? SELL Yes 78¢ $7 37m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 75¢ $2 46m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Under 66¢ $6 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Under 45¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Under 51¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Under 51¢ $4 1h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Under 53¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Under 57¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $6 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Under 59¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 86¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL No 40¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL No 43¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.30 · official $62.07 · 3500 history records