Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2652…c4dd sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+1%) realized +$66 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate63%101W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$18
14 days+$20
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$14
sports 37% −$62
culture 9% +$2
world 5% −$11
politics 3% +$15
tech 1% −$4
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +6.3% -3.8% 57% 57% -1.2%
≤30d 29 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 38% -13.4%
≤90d 161 +1.8% -7.9% 63% 53% -10.1%
all 161 +1.8% -7.9% 63% 53% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 53% -10.1%
10% -16.7% 42% -18.7%
15% -24.8% 27% -26.6%
20% -32.2% 11% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses101 / 60
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)161 / 165
History coverage87d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $102 $92 −$10 (-10%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $120 +$15 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 03 $124 +$1 +1%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 03 $240 −$69 -28%
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 01 $112 −$14 -13%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $15 +$5 +34%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $203 +$30 +15%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $60 −$3 -6%
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 31 $112 −$11 -10%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 28 $80 +$18 +23%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 27 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? May 26 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $110 +$15 +13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $220 +$20 +9%
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 25 $20 −$1 -3%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $20 −$3 -16%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $111 −$110 -99%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 24 $105 +$9 +8%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $118 −$7 -6%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 22 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $103 +$12 +11%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 19 $118 +$25 +21%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 18 $108 +$14 +13%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $200 +$8 +4%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 17 $544 −$2 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 17 $30 −$1 -4%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $102 +$11 +11%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $40 +$11 +27%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $105 −$5 -5%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $30 +$6 +21%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 16 $106 −$10 -10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $50 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $1,429 −$12 -1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 15 $102 +$10 +10%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 15 $118 +$20 +17%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $20 $0 -2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $15 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $10 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 27h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $107 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 14d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 78¢ $12 16d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $46 18d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 80¢ $20 19d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $45 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $20 20d
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 72¢ $98 21d
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY GIANTX 74¢ $15 22d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 69¢ $105 22d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 89¢ $102 22d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 88¢ $50 22d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 81¢ $50 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $57 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.04 · official $192.04 (match) · 403 history records